The journey from there to here was a perfect storm in some ways and a comedy of errors in others. Two inevitable things happened along the way: oil prices took a hit (albeit at break-neck speed) and the political economy took over in a historic election year. With the dust having cleared, one doesn’t need too much sophistication to sense that we’re in much leaner times.
President Buhari’s government will struggle to deliver on its big ambitions with less oil rents to play with. Throw in a weak reserve position, and all those very good promises to invest in infrastructure and education, stimulate SME growth, make conditional cash transfers to the poor and frankly continue to subsidise manufacturing and trade with an artificially high Naira (but nobody likes to put it that way), while funding a counter-insurgency in the North-East, start to sound expensive.
Mr President was very clear during the ‘maiden’ Presidential Media Chat. Between capital projects, established commitments and supplying FX to parts of the economy, he put it quite bluntly: “we don’t have any hard currency now”. In short, there’s no room for sudden or false moves. What is in the pot is already spoken for.